Saturday, March 24, 2012

Round 6

Wow!  talk about the walking wounded round.  This round is loaded with great players who have spent some time on the DL last year.  Here's a prediction, both the NL and AL Comeback Player of the Year will come from this round.

The Turtles pick - For the non-low-rounds, I usually hold off or pull the trigger on players similar to how I draft in football:  if an available player is in a higher 'tier' for their position than another player who may put up better numbers, I often opt for the positional player.  The logic being that some positions are not nearly as deep as others and the payoff for taking better players at their position as opposed to selecting just better players will outweigh taking a better player and then the next best player in said position.  Now that your nice and confused here's and example:  I strongly believe Hunter Pence will put up better overall numbers than my pick of Carlos Santana, most people would agree.  However, the difference between Hunter Pence and the next best OF is much smaller (if any) than the difference between Santana and the next best C.  So when I take into account the production of my C(3) , OF(13)  [where the number in () is the players rank at that position.] versus another managers OF(12) , C(4) combination.  I would hope to come out statistically ahead based on the fact that C(3) is more ahead of C(4) than OF(12) is ahead of OF(13).  Of course this bullshit is purely in theory.  I hope you all took notes on this.

Stretch pick(s) - based on past injuries or just inability to perform last year I would put Crawford, Strasburg, Posey, and Youk here.  Can't say I disagree with any of these picks though, for all four of these players, given a clean slate of health, would certainly be off the table this late in the draft.  Falls into the category that seems to be my teams' mantra: high risk, high reward.  Just like playing a par 5 and having 200 yards to clear the water that is right in front of the green.  Play it safe and most likely par or go for the green in two.  If you make it (and stay on the green) birdie is almost a certainty and eagle a possibility.  If you come up short, bogey becomes a good score.  All four of these players can be anywhere from an eagle to a quadruple bogey.

Other pick(s) - WWW picking Berkman, hey flip a coin on whether he's worth it.  He's a high risk / high reward type, but he is old...no offense to anyone who is 36+.  He won't have to run around in cavernous RF anymore as he is slated to replace Pujols at 1B, but did he just catch a little lightning in a bottle there? After Wally made this pick he must have called his son on the phone and the conversation went something like this:

"Hey son, I just picked up a player that is wicked old, was that a good move?"
"Yeah, that guy is as old as dirt.  Don't worry Dad, I'll do the same thing."

Just kidding.  As long as Rivera keeps putting up numbers like he always has I'll believe he can do it again.  How many years in a row now have we doubted he can keep mowing them down?  He's still top tier closer, but this year I refuse to take early picks on closers.  Thanks but no thanks, I'll pick up some lower tiers later and watch for closers losing their job as the season progresses.

Best pick(s) - It's been a few rounds since I gave myself this award so I'll take it here with my pick of a top 3 catcher who puts up numbers like a 1B (which coincidentally he is eligible for).  Pence is a good pick now that he will be comfy in the tiny park in Philly.  Protected by some big bats.  Dan Haren was projected as a top 10 SP and slipped this far down.

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