We'll see if I go any further. I can say that I went on a RP run at this point taking any remaining saves and even the next in line relievers for those that haven't guaranteed the closer role. I also eventually took a SS way down at the bottom. Hutch took another hurt player in Chris Carpenter, but in your defense it was announced only Friday that he is out indefinitely. Did you pay your $50? Speaking of which, I still owe. The Rodday's both stockpiled their teams with very young talent, makes me wonder if you guys are into baseball card collecting. Your draft picks are a who's-who of up and coming prospects. Speaking of up and coming and young, WWW took the ultimate prospect in Bryce Harper. He has already been sent to AAA, but will he be coming to a ballpark near you? Will WWW keep him, is it possible to keep a player on a fantasy roster even if they are not on a MLB roster? In the complete opposite direction Hoppy went, or his daughter. Picking up every player that is closer to his age, than to the Rodday's.
Well that's all for now, hope you enjoyed reading and welcome your comments or analysis. Good luck.
Your defending champion,
The Turtles
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Rounds 13, 14 & 15
The Turtle's pick(s) - I actually had the three RP in my Q that were taken in front of me. I finally break down and start considering saves and you SOB's take them from me. Whatevah! How can I pass on Konerko? .285/30/100 take it to the bank. He doesn't steal like I was hoping for my util spot, but 5th round numbers coming in the 13th round. Check your pockets cause I just robbed you blind. Of course he could be the next Adam Dunn and I end up eating crow here. Another 200SO, mid 3ERA pitcher for me in Anibel Sanchez on a vastly improved Miami squad. Does anyone know if the new Miami park is as pitcher friendly as the old one? Do retired people prefer low scoring or high scoring games? Maybe I should have checked that before I picked him. Okay, here is my first RP in Chapman, only he is supposed to be converting into a SP, ha ha. And with some ungodly 146mph fastball he'll be up around 25K/9IP. With that heat who gives a crap about all his walks and throwing the ball over hitters' heads.
Stretch pick(s) - @LoganMorrison, I'll see you in the majors sometime around July. Sorry CT.
Madson will have troubles pitching from his hospital bed, very few save opportunities whilst under the knife.
Other pick(s) - I understand why you picked Morrison there Rodday and I think he'll be good eventually. Maybe his new hothead manager will beat the crap out of him. I also noticed you have compiled a pretty good stock of some young players, with the exception of Kinsler is anyone over 30?
Best pick(s) - Drew Stubbs for R&R, this kid is 25 - 35 points (in avg) from being top 10 OF. Cuento for JP, he has improved every year and has an amazing ERA last year. Beachy for B.inge, any pitcher that has 9+SO/9IP and sub4ERA is a great pick down here. Marcum for Potatoes, good up and coming pitcher. Of course being on Scott's team could mean an instant trip to DL. 16 game winner Nova for Rock Vegas, even though he is on the Yanks, he is not on offense. Maybin for Chin Music, looking for steals and got them here. What do the Padres have to lose, they'll send this kid every time he gets on base.
Rounds 11 & 12
The Turtle's pick(s) - B.inge took Matt Moore right from under me, Bastard! I was surprised to see him still available as many sites have him as top 15 SP even though he has RP status. Oh well, I'll have to settle for Ricky Romero and Matt Garza. Like I stated earlier, pitchers left on the board are pretty equal to this point, but I feel these are two more SP that fit my team well: high strikeouts. Both will finish close to 200 with acceptable whip and era. I wish Garza was good for more wins, but playing in Chicago will do that. Romero pitching against the Rays, Yanks, and Red Sox about a billion times this year is a little concerning, but he did it last year and still had a sub 3.00 ERA. Another note, I had my eye on Dee Gordon SS for the Dodgers and figured no one would take him since you all had SS already filled. B.inge screwed me over for a second time in a row by picking his util to bolster his steals. Well played Rodday.
Stretch pick(s) - As soon as R & R took Weiters to fill his catching position, the only one left without a catcher on his roster was Potatoes and B.inge. Also if you compare all the catchers that are still on the board, there is very little difference, if any, between the next 3 or 4 available. Maybe I'm looking into this too deep as it is hard to really call anyone who is not on the DL a stretch at this point, but I do look at other rosters as we get deeper into the draft to see if positions are filled, like I did with SS. If a weak position is filled or nearly filled on every team, and no real talent left at that position, why not just put him in your Q and draft him last. How many of us are going to take another weak C as our util? none. I will bring this up again when b.inge does finally pick up his C as well.
Other pick(s) - Those 12-25 pitchers still going here. Hoppy makes Homer picks. He could end up with the entire roster. Chin hoping a Yankee can get him some steal. Did I mention that no Yankee except for Cano will produce any fantasy value, period.
Best pick(s) - Matt Moore based upon his short stint last year and he also has RP status allowing you to use go 6 deep in SP if you ever needed it. Gio Gonzalez by WWW. Good young pitcher, decent young team spending money to get better. Ricky Weeks Bobby V Squad. Getting some quality numbers this late in the draft proves that waiting for some of the weak positions can pay off and strengthen your other positions at the same time. I may be a bit of a homer here, but Josh Beckett by R&R. After what happened last year I almost hope this guy gets run over by a truck full of chicken and beer, but it's not like he acted alone. He merely is the only one who will not admit what he did that I don't like. If he has a year like last, drop him in August and thank him for the great first 3 months, well worth a 12 rounder.
Rounds 9 & 10
The Turtles pick(s) - At this point in the draft, I only have the SS and util position to fill up. I have already looked at all the other rosters and the available SS still remaining. Every team at this point has already drafted a SS and the one that I have in my Q is someone I never heard of from KC who is pretty irrelevant, but hey, he had 26 SB last year and is young and KC's offense is improving. I figure there is no way anyone will take him as a util or bench player, so at this point I will go all pitching till somewhere near the end in which case I'll take my SS. I also had my eye on Konerko or Crisp for I see no real point in having anyone on my bench. If I have an injury I'll pick someone up or maybe trade. All my spare roster spots will go to pitching. This late in the draft you have to figure that the top 10-13 SP and top 5-7 RP are all snagged up. This is where I was looking at websites the most besides Y! and ESPN. All things considered, it looks like most sites have the same overall pitchers from 12-25, just in a different order. Plenty of these pitchers are still available and come off the board here. Mine were just as good as anyone else's pick for SP here, or just as bad if you're a half empty type of person. Bumgarner gets the nod for me though just cause I like to say his name, and deep down inside you do as well. Shields had 200+ SO, 16 wins and a sub 2.90ERA last year. I'd take those numbers with a 4th round pick in most years.
Stretch pick(s) - If I renamed this stretcher pick it would not matter for Potato's pick of Victor Martinez. Players may not be added till the 26th of March, but I suspect this will be one of the first drops of the year. Don't feel bad though Hutch, I didn't know he was out for the whole year either, I just thought he was supposed to start on the DL. Perhaps you can pick up Veritek to replace him.
Other pick(s) - JP Made a homer pick with Clay, could work out nicely though.
Alex Gordon and Eric Hosmer will knock in my future SS plenty of times, so these picks are worthy.
CJ Wilson typically has a fantastic first half and a mediocre second half, maybe playing in the pitcher friendly park in Anaheim will help..Also a little cooler there than TX. B.inge takes two players who are injury prone. More relievers coming off the board, which still makes me happy. I'll take the scraps later pretty much for free and uncontested while you all let me draft better players.
Top pick(s) - Many players have a sophomore slump only to bounce back and have great years. I think Bobby V's pick of Heyward is that player this year. With Chipper on the way out and the top notch young pitchers in Atlanta, Heyward should fly under the radar. No real pressure there and eventually soon the Bravos are going to need a new face of the franchise. Round 10 to pick a C in a high powered offense. I only see Avila getting better, nice pick here WWW.
Rounds 7 & 8
The Turtles picks - This is quite simple for me at this point. I took a shot at bolstering my pitching staff with the selection of Hamels in the last round, but a lot of pitchers are still on the board and this draft my philosophy has been focused on offense. I feel as though I have one of the top power teams and somewhere near the top in runs and middle of the pack for avg, that leaves steals. Last year I think I won or tied steals every single week. I don't think I'll repeat that feat this year, but if my plan works I should compete in the steals category 2/3rds of the time. Simple plan, fill the rest of my roster with lead-off hitters while trying to focus on, in order of importance, steals (duh), runs, avg, hr/rbi would be icing on the cake. 5-tool players are pretty much gone. This way in every match-up I should win a vast majority of the time the hr,rbi,and r categories, most of the time steals and avg. I'll have to figure out pitching later, but like I said earlier, I could always be a waiver wire player and hope for wins and so. We'll see.
In any case, so far so good, I got Bourn who is on a much better Atlanta team than last years' Houston, great runs and sb, decent avg. And next was BJ Upton. This kid has power and speed. I had him last year and he finished with 23hr/88rbi/36sb/82runs. His .243 avg is a pill that must be swallowed but I'll take it and hope he improves upon that. If he does, look for two Uptons to be chosen in the first three rounds next year.
Stretch pick(s) - these will be harder and harder to single out as the rounds get later and later. Only one really pops out for me here: WWW's pick of Jesus Montero. Yes he has a ton of upside, and yes he showed that at the end of last season while with the Yankees. However, when you bat at the end of the Yankees lineup you tend to see better pitches than you will in the middle of the Mariners lineup. Also, Safeco Park is a pitchers' park. I can't remember the exact site, but there's one that analyzes how many hrs would still be hrs in other parks. They particularly focus on players that are switching teams, like Montero. The short of it is that Montero benefited greatly from hitting in Yankee stadium and would have had like half as many hr if he hit those same balls in Safeco. Long pretty outs.
Other pick(s) - If Mauer returns to even close to his old self this is a steal for Hoppy. Papelbon this late, not bad, but again taking relievers too early is not my bag of tea. He could put up monster numbers playing for a better team and not facing the DH. Baily, still faces DH but playing for a better team could result in a very successful campaign. Morse is a free swinger who still makes good contact reminiscent of Vlad. He's 30 and in his 2nd full season (expected 150+ games) so it took him a while to get here. All those other relievers (Axford, Putz) go for it, see comments on relievers above. Binge drinkers got a nice pitcher in Gallardo, he quietly improved on every category from a good '10. He could easily be the best pick of the lot.
Best pick(s) - Don't think I picked Rock Vegas here because I was so harsh on his Yankee picks earlier. Yu Darvish is currently a mystery. Call it a gut feeling though that he will be better than Dice-K's rookie season in which he posted 200+ SO, 15W 4.40ERA and 1.32WHIP. I think Yu will match wins and SO and have a mid-3ERA and respectable whip. Jay Bruce by Conspiracy Theory is a good pick as well.
Round 6
The Turtles pick - For the non-low-rounds, I usually hold off or pull the trigger on players similar to how I draft in football: if an available player is in a higher 'tier' for their position than another player who may put up better numbers, I often opt for the positional player. The logic being that some positions are not nearly as deep as others and the payoff for taking better players at their position as opposed to selecting just better players will outweigh taking a better player and then the next best player in said position. Now that your nice and confused here's and example: I strongly believe Hunter Pence will put up better overall numbers than my pick of Carlos Santana, most people would agree. However, the difference between Hunter Pence and the next best OF is much smaller (if any) than the difference between Santana and the next best C. So when I take into account the production of my C(3) , OF(13) [where the number in () is the players rank at that position.] versus another managers OF(12) , C(4) combination. I would hope to come out statistically ahead based on the fact that C(3) is more ahead of C(4) than OF(12) is ahead of OF(13). Of course this bullshit is purely in theory. I hope you all took notes on this.
Stretch pick(s) - based on past injuries or just inability to perform last year I would put Crawford, Strasburg, Posey, and Youk here. Can't say I disagree with any of these picks though, for all four of these players, given a clean slate of health, would certainly be off the table this late in the draft. Falls into the category that seems to be my teams' mantra: high risk, high reward. Just like playing a par 5 and having 200 yards to clear the water that is right in front of the green. Play it safe and most likely par or go for the green in two. If you make it (and stay on the green) birdie is almost a certainty and eagle a possibility. If you come up short, bogey becomes a good score. All four of these players can be anywhere from an eagle to a quadruple bogey.
Other pick(s) - WWW picking Berkman, hey flip a coin on whether he's worth it. He's a high risk / high reward type, but he is old...no offense to anyone who is 36+. He won't have to run around in cavernous RF anymore as he is slated to replace Pujols at 1B, but did he just catch a little lightning in a bottle there? After Wally made this pick he must have called his son on the phone and the conversation went something like this:
"Hey son, I just picked up a player that is wicked old, was that a good move?"
"Yeah, that guy is as old as dirt. Don't worry Dad, I'll do the same thing."
Just kidding. As long as Rivera keeps putting up numbers like he always has I'll believe he can do it again. How many years in a row now have we doubted he can keep mowing them down? He's still top tier closer, but this year I refuse to take early picks on closers. Thanks but no thanks, I'll pick up some lower tiers later and watch for closers losing their job as the season progresses.
Best pick(s) - It's been a few rounds since I gave myself this award so I'll take it here with my pick of a top 3 catcher who puts up numbers like a 1B (which coincidentally he is eligible for). Pence is a good pick now that he will be comfy in the tiny park in Philly. Protected by some big bats. Dan Haren was projected as a top 10 SP and slipped this far down.
Round 5
The Turtles pick - Ok, I finally picked up a pitcher here. By this point I am thinking that I may be the waiver wire champ of the year and just try and fill up my pitching spots every day to win the SO and W categories and give up on the ERA WHIP and who knows maybe pick up a couple #2 relievers who take the closer duties away from a borderline RP to occasionally take saves from someone who has even less pitching than I do. I really was planning on staying the course and continue to load up on offense, but I just can't resist this SP. He has missed a few starts here and there which is a concern, but I can't recall him having any serious arm injuries. He pitches in a hitters park which is also a concern. But there are two factors that I cannot ignore about this SP, 1) he is considered by many to be the #3 pitcher on a loaded pitching staff behind Halladay and Cliff Lee. Ever hear of pride and competition? he will be driven by their success. What pitcher does not want to be considered the ace, particularly when the current ace(s) are at least 5+ years older than you. At 28, Cole is right at the juicy pitchers age when they can start to really dominate (see Matt Cain comments earlier). For the same reason I like Lester finally being the ace of the Red Sox, I like Hamels to take another huge step forward to start his claim of ace status. On any other team he would be the ace, why not try and be the ace of the aces. 2) He, like Cain, reminds me of a left handed Halladay. His numbers are unrivaled for the first 6 years of a SP career. Only getting better each year.
Stretch pick(s) - I repeat, the only Yankee who will put up good fantasy numbers this year is Cano, period. Personally, I have already conceded at this point that there is no SS that would deserve a pick earlier than the 8th round. I would like to have any of the three picked here over the one I ended up with, but I'm not going to use a pick here just to fill my roster when there are so many better players available. At this point SS is a late round pick and the ones picked here, Castro, Bonifacio in particular, will most likely not end up with significantly better numbers than the ones picked in rounds 12+. But I thank you for using your picks here because now I don't need to pick a SS for some time since you all are not going to pick another SS for your roster. This is similar to picking a middle of the road kicker or defense in a football league in anything but the last or 2nd to last round.
Other pick(s) - Holiday and Hamilton are nice safe picks. A Turtle seal of approval. Hoppy is actually having a very consistent and safe draft, okay maybe Braun was a few picks early, but other than that it sure seems like he is on autopick...did anyone actually see him with a computer on and in front of him? Was his daughter picking for him at home? Although I didn't like any of the SS picked this early, Conspiracy Theory's pick of Andrus wasn't as bad as the others in the sense that I think he is the best of the three SS taken off the board this round (playing for TX helps, I had him last year and he gets a ton of runs - the unsung category on offense) but he got him last, thus giving him a little bit of value and kept you off the strech list.
Best pick(s) - If Napoli can continue the pace he set last year, and is C eligible, by far the Chim Nusic is the winner of the round. Not since Victor Martinez has there been a C with these numbers, and VMart was a top 15 pick in his heyday. All other pitchers taken in this round make sense as they are #1's on their team and play for decent teams so can put up nice 4/5 stats.
Round 4
The Turtles pick - Like my last pick, this pick is a big reward vs big risk selection. I honestly had to look this guy up because I had never heard of Giancarlo. What the hell, he used to be Mike. Changing your name is not the smartest thing in the world. Think Ochocinco and the artist formerly known as Prince. I wouldn't say that their careers got better after the name change. But it sure worked for John Cougar (Melloncamp). So from this day forth I shall refer to Giancarlo Stanton as John Melloncamp. He certainly has the power to match my current philosophy, but I am a little concerned about his average. His success is also directly linked to how well both Reyes and Ramirez do this season, now you can see why I predict that those two will have a ton of runs and stay healthy this year. If they don't Johnny boy here could try and do it all himself and hit a HR every at bat and end up with 2.12x10^2 strikeouts and an average of pretty much the same thing to match his 40+ HR.
Stretch pick(s) - My pick Stanton is the biggest stretch in this round. I probably could have waited, or picked up McCuthchen, who went with the next pick, but so far this draft I have been trigger happy with huge risk/reward players, why stop now. As I mentioned before, I'm not crazy about 3B Wright. The ballpark, lack of support, age, injury, he just seems to be putting up worse and worse numbers each year. Storen in this round may have been a reaction to WWW taking Kimbrel, but as it turns out there wasn't a RP run. Some might have put Pap or Mariano here since Storen has had some soreness this spring.
Other pick(s) - Rollins is old, but still a good SS. Not nearly in the same category as Reyes, Tulu, and Ramirez, but for his position puts up decent numbers if he doesn't get hurt. A good safe pick. Other safe picks: Kinsler and Zobrist. Both have a ton of ability for the position, particularly Kinsler if he can stay healthy all year. If Lester is out to clear his name, watch out.
Best pick(s) - Cain is ready to contend for the Cy Young. He may not get the SO that his teammate Mr. Lincecum gets (yet), or the run support that Sabathia gets (ok this isn't going to happen anytime soon), but think of Felix Hernandez two years ago. He's 27 and only getting better. More importantly, he has avoided being injured like most workhorses. Remind you of any other NL workhorses? I think of Halladay. Cain's numbers are similar, if not better. Halladay became considered a dominant pitcher from 2003-2005 when he was the same age as Cain now. This kid is big and strong and just now showing us how good he is. McCutchen is an up and coming player on an up and coming team. Even though I did not draft him, I know I am going to regret it later. I'm actually rooting for this kid and the Pirates. Wouldn't all of you like to see them finally win? WWW picks the first closer off the board. Normally I would have criticized this pick for closers are like the weather in Nebraska - just can't predict it and it can change in a minute. That being said I looked back on your team and noticed that you are going (nearly) all pitching, a complete 180 from your team last year. I made a comment in chat regarding your adding and dropping your entire pitching staff in jest and I really like the direction your going here...it worked well for me last year and I don't know if you came up with this strategy on the fly or you planned this all along, either way it is a strategy that I would have never expected from you and I applaud you for it. And if Kimbrel repeats what he did last year, you could be difficult to get any points from in the 5 pitching categories. Good Luck!
Round 3
The Turtles pick - Beltre. Former Red Sox who I thought last year would fall flat on his face being that he had already signed his contract. Remember this guy when he was huge for the Dodgers, signs a huge contract in Seattle, and couldn't even muster up warning track power or the ability to hit for his weight? I do. He also has some heath concerns, but seeing the two SS come off the board just before my pick helped me continue my trend of power in the positions that should produce your power. I really wanted my 3B to be power here so I could use my OF and SS to hope for some steals. I also would not pick David Wright (see "do not draft list"
in Round 2) and am just as cautious with the up-and-coming-just-signed-a-big-contract-and-is-ready-to-do-nothing-or-spend-a-ton-of-time-on-the-DL Zimmerman...this kid burned me before. Anyways, playing in hitter friendly Texas with a very potent lineup around him, Beltre seemed like the choice for me.
Stretch pick(s) - Rock Vegas is starting to look like Pebble Reno to me here. Maybe it's all that flying back and forth to that state to the north. McCann over Napoli? Him....here? are you kidding me? McCann is good, but I just don't think he is worth that pick here. But just like Granderson, he'll probably put up huge numbers, at which case I will buy you a beer. B.inge drinkers' pick of Teixeria raised an eyebrow as well, again, no Yankee except for Cano will be worth spit, period. He probably would have been available in round 4.
Other pick(s) - Here goes a run of SP. I had Lee and Weaver next in my Q for this round. Figured I needed an ace somewhere. But when 3 of the best pitchers available all went off the board I decided not to join the fray. This could be very costly to me because I will most likely be one of the only teams without a true ace pitchers who gives wins, era, whip, and so. My power plan better work or I'm up the river without a poodle.
Best pick(s) - Mr Potato Head got the steal of the round in Pedro here. I was hoping to steal him and put him in my utility slot just for trade bait to get an ace pitcher that I was lacking. Can't take what is not there though, your best pick of the draft thus far. In second place I really like Waiver Wire Wally's pick here too, he was lights out 2nd half of last year and is healthy and on a decent team. May lose some run support with Prince gone, but I look for him to finish a top 5 pitcher in all 4 SP categories.
Round 2
The Turtles Pick - Okay, remember how I said in my first round analysis I was giving serious consideration to Cano, based purely on his 2B status? Can you imagine how surprised and thrilled I was that he fell to me here? Many of you may not agree with me and just go for players with better overall numbers, but he can rival most anyone left on the board in 4/5 of the offensive categories and he plays a position that I usually end up giving up on till the end of the draft. I know I'm not following my traditional 5-tool players strategy here, but I cannot possibly pass on him twice in a row. At this point, my pre-draft strategy of going with what worked last year (draft up the best pitchers early) is out the window and I am treading on new ground. This is the first time in memory that it looks like I will be abandoning pitching or pure 5-tool players to stock up on power.
Stretch pick(s) - Sorry Rock Vegas, but I think Granderson before both Upton and CarGo is a stretch. The only Yankee who will have a productive fantasy year is Cano, period.
Other pick(s) - Gonzo, Halladay, Cargo, Upton, Prince and Longoria are all safe picks and earn my seal of approval. Even Granderson is a good 2nd rounder, I just thought the other two mentioned above would go first, again, this is only my opinion. Most likely this comment will bite me in the ass when Granderson hits .280 and knocks in 40/120 and steals 25. We'll see.
Best pick(s) - The only two not mentioned this round so far are the two SS. I debated whether to put these two in the stretch pick category based purely upon their health in recent years, particularly Ramirez. However, I think there is a new attitude down there in Miami (as much as I despise the state of Florida) and a new (winning) manager, new stadium, hell they even have new uniforms. So I'm going to give these two the benefit of the doubt that they will play more than 50 games this year and more like 150 which makes these two the 2nd and 3rd best SS and the last worth drafting until a lot later. If they spend significant time on the DL, they will be labeled as my bust-of-the-year and forever placed on my "do not draft list"
Round 1
The Turtles pick - Wow, Cabrera still available at 6. I don't know if this league is avoiding him because of taking a grounder in the face or what, but according to all I've seen this guy is a top 3 pick. I was originally planning on taking either the stud pitcher (Verlander or Kershaw) here or Cano. I usually don't take a 2B this early, or a Yankee for that matter, but I was counting on plenty of depth at the other power positions. As far as a pitcher, last year I drafted to pwn the pitching categories. Even though I ended up winning the title, my strongest categories were 3/5 offense and only 2/5 pitching...go figure. If I could have had my choice of a pick here, it would have been Kemp, of course I might be a bit biased because I had him last year and love those 5-tool players.
Stretch pick(s) - Hard to say there's a stretch pick in this round. Pretty much the top 10 preseason fantasy players were picked but in a different order than the average draft position (ADP) indicates. Based purely on ADP, Braun and Verlander were taken perhaps too early? But how can you possible argue that the reigning MVP's are taken early? To each his own, hopefully Braun will not be distracted by the "Ster - roids" chants away from home.
Other pick(s) - No surprises here. Consensus top 10 picks.
Best pick(s) - Another hard one to pick. Of course I feel I got a great player who will also be 3B eligible at #6 with Cabrera. I really think Kershaw at #10 will replace Lincecum as "the freak" and be the best pitcher for the year. If Cabrera wasn't there, he was first in my Q. Bautista at #7 could end up being a steal, being a top 5 stat earner in 4 categories and 3B is not particularly deep this year.
Greetings fellow Bush Leaguers! Since I have a little time I thought I would give this blog a whirl. In the Football league I've been a part of for the past 10 years we have a guy who annually posts his interpretation of the draft for all to view. It's a lot of fun and allows for managers to agree, disagree, make fun of, etc other managers. All in good fun of course.
So take a look. I encourage you to make comments and if you are so bold, post your own analysis.
So take a look. I encourage you to make comments and if you are so bold, post your own analysis.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)